Moldova’s Uncertain Future: Can Sandu Steer Toward the EU?
1. Former Soviet nation Moldova voted on two pivotal issues on October 20th, 2024, and held a runoff on November 3rd, 2024. Tell us about Moldova’s recent elections. Who were the figures and what issues were involved?
Moldova held its presidential election this past Winter. The first candidate was former Moldovan President Maia Sandu, who ran for a second term. Her primary opponent was Alexandr Stoianoglo, a candidate backed by the Russian socialist party and former Moldovan president Igor Dodon.
The election’s most contested issue was the EU referendum: a decision which dictated Moldova’s stance on EU integration. Maia Sandu, the pro-Western candidate, pushed for this referendum and based her entire campaign on it. Logically, she largely depended on voters living outside of Moldova. This sparked outrage among Russians, who claimed that the distribution of polling stations showcased bias toward pro-Western Moldovans. That is, there were only two polling stations in Moscow, while a total of sixty stations were spread throughout Italy, the United States, and Canada.
Ultimately, Maia Sandu won the presidential election and the EU referendum passed with razor-thin margins, when 50.46% percent of Moldovans voted ‘Yes’, while 49.54% voted ‘No’.
2. What is the rationale behind Moldovans voting ‘No’? What are the downsides to EU integration?
Although Moldova’s EU integration seems picturesque, it can be painted as overly idealistic. There are completely valid reasons as to why many Moldovans did not approve of this referendum.
In Maia Sandu’s previous presidential term from 2020 to 2024, there were multiple promises made that Moldovans felt that she had failed to fulfill. This includes the failure to completely dismantle networks of oligarchs and unsatisfactory justice reforms. Consequently, this has created a cycle of distrust for Moldovans. They doubt that either her or opposing political parties have civil society’s best interest at heart. Therefore, they question who the decision of EU integration is really for.
It is also worth mentioning that Moldova is an incredibly poor country. Many of its citizens are unemployed or receive scarce compensation, and few economic opportunities exist to satiate Moldovans’ needs. There is a pervasive fear that EU integration would aggravate these economic concerns and plunge Moldova into a state of crisis.
3. The elections resulted in the reelection of President Maria Sandu. Known for her pro-Western and anti-Russian stance, tell us more about President Sandu and who she defeated?
President Maia Sandu is the current president of Moldova who started her second term in late 2024. She made history by being the country’s first female President in 2016. Prior to becoming President, she was a high-achieving career professional who worked both in public administration and as a civil servant. Her time in the Ministry of Economy and Trade and at the World Bank has been said to be invaluable.
The pillars of President Sandu’s politics are EU integration, anti-corruption initiatives, and economic reforms. Sandu has established the basic groundwork to address corruption and justice reforms, yet these issues are still prominent in Moldovan institutions. Due to a lack of tangible improvement, Sandu is staunchly criticized for this lack of a feat.
In the recent elections, President Maia Sandu defeated presidential candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, the latter being extremely vocal about his disapproval of Moldova’s EU integration. Although he has declared himself to not be against Moldova’s European aspirations, he declared that he finds it “insulting that European integration is used as a truncheon and not as a means to modernize the country and unite the people.” Ultimately, although he said he was not loyal to Russia, he was backed by pro-Russian groups and was apt to meet Putin in Moscow to discuss common geopolitical interests.
4. The largest threat to Moldova is Russia. How has Russia interfered in Moldova’s elections and democracy?
Russia is a persistent puppeteer in Moldova’s playing field, especially during periods of elections. After the presidential election passed in late 2024, President Maia Sandu stated explicitly that foreign interference had been present, which accounted for the slim gap between her and Stoianoglo. To corroborate this claim, it is important to note that Moldovan National Security Advisor Stanislav Secrieru estimated that Russia would spend a total of $100 million trying to interfere with the referendum and election.
Although this quantity has not been officially verified post-election, there is proof that an abundant amount of money was spent by the Russian Federation to engineer propaganda campaigns and bribe members of Moldovan civil society. National Police Chief Viorel Cernautaenu expressed that a Russian-managed network bribed 130,000 Moldovans to vote against EU alignment in the referendum and in support of Russian-aligned candidates. These bribes were successful initiatives, as showcased by the $15 million transferred to newly opened accounts in Moldova.
Russian fugitive Ilan Shor who resides in Moldova also bribed Moldovan TV networks to only display Russian-based news channels who would advocate against President Sandu. This propaganda produced a homogeneous and monotonous view of the Moldovan elections available to civil society, which likely skewed public opinion in favor of Alexandr Stoianoglo.
5. As an EU accession country, Moldova is a country of geographical importance, located between Romania and Ukraine. In a recent article, you discussed public opinion and the EU integration proposal, noting that 63 percent of Moldovans support this. Can you elaborate on the importance of Moldova in regards to Russia, Europe, and the West?
It is true that Moldova’s strategic location places it at a geostrategic crossroads of influence between Russia, Europe, and the West.
As an EU accession candidate, Moldova represents a significant shift in the balance of influence in Eastern Europe. Moldova was part of the Soviet Republic until 1991 and has always existed in the realm of Soviet influence, even after the fall of the Soviet Union. The Russian Federation has sought to maintain its leverage over the country through economic pressure, energy dependence, and political influence. This forges an intimate bond rooted in Russian hegemony. Consequently, Moldova’s growing cooperation with the EU challenges this bond and weakens the Kremlin’s ability to project power into Eastern Europe. This line of thought contributed to the idea that if Ukraine is defeated, Moldova could be Russia’s next target.
Europe and the West view Moldova’s accession to the EU as a way to perpetuate democratic norms and political stability in a region that has long remained under the watchful eyes of Russia. This shift reflects broader efforts by the EU and NATO to counter Russian aggression and expand Western influence in Eastern Europe. However, it is worth mentioning that Moldova’s support from Europe and the West is currently substantially weakened due to NATO's vulnerability. The loss of the United States’ support under the new Trump – Vance administration will have dire consequences on NATO operations, including on Moldova’s EU accession.
6. The global order is changing as multilateralism and the “international rules-based order” are increasingly disappearing. Can Moldova’s strength and resilience in standing up to the Kremlin be a model for other Western countries to stand up against corruption and interference?
Despite its small size, lack of economic prowess, and vulnerable position between Russia and the European Union, Moldova has pursued a path approaching democratic reform and European integration. Many countries like Moldova seem to be the testing grounds for authoritarianism due to their size and instability. Yet, Moldova’s resilience can offer valuable lessons for other countries suffering this very same fate.
Although bombarded with Russian-backed destabilization efforts, Moldova has been able to get its head above water. The country has prioritized anti-corruption measures, judicial reforms, and increased political transparency per Sandu’s administration. Moldova has showcased the ability to be innovative, a key quality for any instable state, by increasing energy independence through alternative gas supplies, due to being cut off from Russia’s energy supply.
For countries like Hungary and Serbia who are either suffering from invasive Russian influence or currently allied to Russia, Moldova’s experience serves as a model for reclaiming political independence and reinforcing democratic measures. As demonstrated within the case of Moldova, this would include judicial reforms, a lack of Russian dependability, international support, and the bolstering of media literacy.
7. What role have propaganda, cyber-attacks and digital warfare played in Moldova?
Propaganda, cyber-attacks, and digital warfare have been significantly harnessed to perpetuate Russian influence and interference in Moldova. Beyond mass online disinformation which continues to prove a grave risk to Moldova’s sovereignty and stability, there has been a stark surge in cyber-attacks which disrupt Moldova’s political and economic stability.
As with most countries, Moldova has faced a rise in cyber-attacks due to increasingly sophisticated cyber threats. These can have varied consequences, such as leaking sensitive information regarding the Moldovan public or skewing votes in elections. Moldova experienced significant cyber-attacks that coincided with the 2024 presidential election and the EU referendum. Days before the vote, Moldova's parliamentary email servers were compromised by an unidentified threat, which sowed doubt about the integrity of the election results.
This cyber intrusion is not an anomaly, but rather part of a broader pattern of interference. Consequently, Moldova has implemented measures to combat these threats. Netherlands, a hub of cyber diplomacy, hosted their first bilateral cyber dialogue in conjunction with Moldova in January 2025. Likewise, the European Union also helps to protect vulnerable countries from cyber-attacks. Following the 2024 presidential election, the EU deployed its Cyber Rapid Response Team to support Moldova, address cybersecurity concerns, and contribute to cyber capacity-building measures in the nation.
8. What has the role of the United States and the EU been?
The United States and the European Union have both played a crucial role in protecting Moldova against foreign influence. However, there may be a significant shift following the Trump – Vance’s administration’s new policies.
The EU has been a long-time key partner for Moldova. Not only have they provided a fast-track path toward EU accession, but they have also granted political backing and funding for numerous infrastructure projects. This partnership has also been branded through signed agreements which have enhanced bilateral security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counter-disinformation efforts.
The United States has historically been one of the financial rocks for Moldova’s security and democracy. In 2023, the US pledged $300 million to help Moldova secure alternative energy sources and reduce its reliance on Russian energy. Further, it has also supported the modernization of Moldova’s military through trainings on hybrid warfare threats and through supplying proper equipment to its soldiers. Likewise, the US has also been a key player in boosting Moldovan media literacy by funding independent media outlets and media literacy programs.
9. As the U.S. withdraws from engagement with Europe and Russian President Putin becomes more emboldened, there is an increasing urgency for Europe and the West to prepare to be able to stand on their own. How does this impact Moldova?
The United States withdrawing its financial and military support in the Eastern bloc will have significant impacts on Moldova’s ability to maintain its democracy. It is necessary to observe that the United States government has started to align itself with Russia, potentially seeking a future partnership. This would mean that the US no longer see Moldova as an ally, but rather an obstacle in the way of being in Putin’s good graces. Emails from the new administration have even stated that the United States gave $32 million for a “left-wing propaganda operation in Moldova”, referring to President Maia Sandu’s government and administration.
Since the 1990s, USAID has invested billions of dollars into Eastern Europe. However, the total amount of funds has been reduced to zero due to USAID’s demise. This abrupt cessation of funding threatens Moldova’s stability which can be seen in different corners of civil society, such as by merely watching TV. In Moldova, many television networks and media sources are funded by Russia, and foreign funding was formerly used to strike a counterbalance. The loss of funding gives a clear pathway for Russian influence to reign over Moldovan institutions, imposing its power and narrative.
NATO seems to be at a loss without the United States and will take time to redress itself after the loss of such a powerful ally. Their partnership and assistance to Moldova will be put on the backburner until they can re-organize themselves without the need of the United States. These are all clear indicators that Moldova’s democratic leanings are in peril and can no longer be sustained by major international organizations.
10. What does the future hold? Will Moldova gravitate to the East or West?
For the moment, it seems that Moldova is still gravitating toward the West, pending its accession to the EU. President Maia Sandu continues to engage with allied countries to bolster Moldova’s democracy. Last week, she met with French President, Emmanuel Macron, to sign a 30-million-euro energy agreement to enhance and diversify Moldova’s energy sources. EU leaders such as President Macron continue to be outspoken about Russia’s tyrannical tendencies toward former Soviet Republics such as Moldova, providing hope for Moldova’s global partnerships.
However, Russia’s power should not be underestimated. With the United States as a potential ally, Moldova’s democracy could easily backslide. Likewise, another President could come to power in Moldova and contribute to the regression of the country, as we have seen with Viktor Orbán and Hungary.
Further, many NGOs and think tanks in the United States who are responsible for contributing to Moldova’s democracy have been faced with major funding cuts and personnel layoffs. As a result, less aid will be provided to Moldova, which could consequently catalyze a pull back toward the Russian Federation. This would ultimately be the result of a lack of foreign assistance, exploited instability, increased foreign interference, and mass propaganda campaigns.
Elsa Debargue is a first-year graduate student studying International Affairs with a concentration in International Security at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She holds a B.A. in International Affairs and Spanish from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where she also minored in Russian, Eastern European, and Central Asian Studies (REECAS), Gender Studies, and European Studies. Debargue is currently a Cyberspace Initiative Cooperation Intern at the Observer Research Foundation America per her interest in technology policy. She can be reached at elsa.debargue@gwu.edu.